Liquidity & Technical
Liquidity & Technical
Thin trading makes Supreme an execution-constrained name: average daily turnover of about £183K means that even a 0.5% issuer-level position takes roughly five trading weeks to unwind at a 20% participation rate. The tape itself is constructive in the very near term — a sharp +31% one-month rebound has dragged price marginally back above the 200-day average — but a death cross from late November 2025 remains the dominant overhead signal and RSI at 73 says the bounce is already extended.
1. Portfolio implementation verdict
5-day capacity (£K, 20% ADV)
Max position cleared in 5d (% mcap)
Supported AUM, 5% weight (£M)
ADV/Mcap (%)
Tech stance (-3 to +3)
Supreme is not institutionally implementable at meaningful size. Five-day capacity at a 20% ADV cap is roughly £193K — under one tenth of one percent of market cap. A fund running a 5% position would need either a £4M maximum portfolio or several months of patient block accumulation. Watchlist only for institutional books; tradable for specialist UK small-cap mandates with multi-week execution runways.
2. Price snapshot
Last close (pence)
YTD return (%)
1-year return (%)
52-week position (0=low, 100=high)
Beta (n/a, AIM small-cap)
Beta is unavailable for this AIM small-cap; the EWU benchmark series in relative_performance.json is empty for this run, so an explicit beta calculation is omitted rather than fabricated.
3. The critical chart — five years of price with 50/200 SMA
Most recent death cross on 2025-11-26: the 50-day SMA (now 143p) crossed below the 200-day SMA (now 161p) and remains decisively below it. The earlier golden cross on 2025-06-17 is no longer in force.
Price is above the 200-day SMA by 1.1% — but only just, and the 50-day average sits roughly 18 points beneath the 200-day. The five-year regime is best characterised as a deep round-trip: a 2021 IPO-era spike to 245p, a 2022–2023 collapse to 72p, a 2024 recovery rally toward 200p, and a sharp late-2025 drawdown that has been partially reclaimed in the last month. Net regime: range-bound with a bearish moving-average structure that the recent bounce has not yet repaired.
4. Relative strength
Benchmark series for the UK broad market (EWU) and a UK consumer-staples sector basket were not populated for this run. Rather than synthesise a relative-strength line, we report the absolute YTD and one-year returns above and note that without the benchmark series, an apples-to-apples relative chart would be misleading.
5. Momentum panel — RSI + MACD
RSI sits at 73, the highest reading in the last 18 months and well into overbought territory; the MACD histogram (currently +0.58) is positive but compressing for the third consecutive week. Translation: the +31% one-month spike is real but already telegraphing a near-term consolidation. Momentum is bullish on signal direction, stretched on extension — buyers are paying up into resistance, not bottoming on weakness.
6. Volume, volatility and sponsorship
Top three volume spikes (since IPO):
30-day realised volatility is 36% — sitting between the historical 20th percentile (28%) and the median (38%). For an FMCG name the absolute level is high, but it is calm by Supreme's own history, where the 80th percentile sits at 52%. The big volume spikes — including the most recent in late November 2025 — line up with directional moves on no clearly tagged news, suggesting the float is dominated by a handful of holders whose flows show up as event-day liquidations rather than steady institutional sponsorship.
7. Institutional liquidity
Supreme is flagged illiquid / specialist only. Average daily turnover is roughly £183K and a five-day window at 20% ADV clears only about 0.10% of market cap. Numbers below are presented for reference, not for casual sizing.
A. ADV and turnover
ADV 20d (shares)
ADV 20d (£K)
ADV 60d (shares)
ADV/Mcap (%)
Annual turnover (%)
B. Fund-capacity table — what fund AUM does this stock support at typical position weights?
C. Liquidation runway — days to fully exit hypothetical issuer-level positions
D. Intraday range proxy. Median 60-day daily range is 0.9% — tight by AIM standards, suggesting bid-ask cost is not the binding friction; share count is.
Verdict. No size tier clears the five-day threshold without breaching the 20% ADV cap — even the smallest position considered (0.5% of market cap, ~£979K) requires roughly five weeks to unwind. The largest positions an institutional account should realistically build are in the £100–200K range over multiple weeks of patient accumulation, equivalent to a 1–2% weight only for funds well under £10M. Above that scale, this is a name to follow, not own.
8. Technical scorecard and stance
Stance: NEUTRAL with a bearish skew on the 3-to-6 month horizon. Net technical score is +1: the bounce is the only positive feature on the page, and it is already at RSI 73 with the death cross structurally intact. The two levels that matter:
- Above 175p — clears the 200-day SMA (160.7p) decisively, matches the upper Bollinger Band (175.4p), and would put price ahead of the 50d/200d crossover required to unwind the November death cross. A reclaim of 175p flips the stance to constructive.
- Below 142p — gives back the 50-day average (142.8p) and confirms the late-2025 selloff is resuming. A break below 142p would put a retest of the 124p 52-week low on the table.
Liquidity is the constraint. Even if the chart were unambiguously bullish, this is not a name that an institutional fund can simply add at a 2% weight on a Tuesday morning — it is a watchlist name to be built slowly across multiple weeks, or a specialist position for sub-£10M small-cap mandates. The technical setup does not yet justify breaking the patience required by the float.